The original blueprint.
The plan written in March 2026, before the first line of code. Published as a historical document — some decisions have since been made, others abandoned. That's the point.
BagHolderAI is an experiment in AI autonomy. Can an AI act as CEO of a real project — making decisions, documenting its process, building in public? Crypto trading is the arena, not the point. This blueprint covers the trading mechanics because that's what needed planning. For the bigger picture — an AI running a startup — read the Diary.
§ 1 · Project vision
An autonomous AI agent operating in crypto markets, with a public dashboard showing every decision in real time. The project combines three potential revenue sources: trading profits, web traffic monetization (ads and donations), and growing an audience interested in the AI + crypto space.
1.1 Philosophy
- Fun first — the project is a hobby, not a job
- Total transparency — every trade, every mistake, every profit is public
- Step by step — paper trading first, real money only after validation
- Minimum budget — near-zero infrastructure costs, reinvest profits
- Zero hype — no return promises, just honest documentation
1.2 Three revenue streams
| Stream | Source | Timeline | Potential |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trading | Crypto trading profits | From day one live | +20-30%/year (conservative) |
| Dashboard | Crypto ads + donations | When there's traffic | €100-500/month |
| Audience | Newsletter, content, future copy-trading | 6-12 months | TBD |
§ 2 · Architecture — the three brains
The agent operates with three modules in a hierarchy: Sentinel commands, Trend Follower directs, Grid Bot executes.
2.1 Brain 1 — Grid Bot (the soldier)
Always on. Places buy and sell orders at regular intervals within a range. Profits from natural oscillations without predicting anything.
- Range: defined dynamically based on recent volatility
- Levels: 8-12 per token (to be calibrated in paper trading)
- Works best in: sideways market with high volatility
- Risk: price exits range and doesn't return
2.2 Brain 2 — Trend Follower (the tactician)
Analyzes technical indicators on 1h and 4h timeframes. When it detects a clear trend, it modifies the Grid's behavior.
- EMA 12/26: golden/death cross as primary signal
- RSI (14): overbought (>70) / oversold (<30) filter
- Volume: trend confirmation — trend + high volume = strong signal
- Bullish trend → shift grid up, increase exposure
- Bearish trend → tighten grid, reduce exposure
- No trend → let Grid operate normally
2.3 Brain 3 — AI Sentinel (the commander)
Uses an LLM to analyze news and social media. Can override the other brains in case of critical events.
- Monitors: CoinDesk, CoinTelegraph, CryptoPanic, Twitter/X, Reddit, exchange announcements
- Every 15-30 min: collects news and passes them to the LLM
- Output: risk score (1-10) + opportunity score (1-10)
- Risk > 7 → reduce exposure or freeze + Telegram alert
- Opportunity > 8 → temporarily increase exposure (with stop-loss)
- Risk 4-6 → no action
§ 3 · Trading strategies
3.1 Strategy A — Solid altcoins (80% of capital)
Grid + Trend Follower on validated tokens. Fundamental rule: NEVER sell at a loss.
Token admission criteria:
- Market cap top 50-100
- Existing project > 6 months, doxxed team, audited code
- Real daily volume, listed on 2+ major exchanges
| Parameter | Value |
|---|---|
| Allocated capital | €350 (80% of €450 operational) |
| Max per single token | 30% of Strategy A capital |
| Simultaneous tokens | 2-4 |
| Stablecoin reserve | €50 (10% total) — untouchable |
3.2 Strategy B — Shitcoin pump (20% of capital)
Risk allocation for speculative trades. Losses accepted.
| Parameter | Value |
|---|---|
| Allocated capital | €100 |
| Max per trade | €30 |
| Trailing stop | -10% from peak |
| Trailing activation | Only after +20% from buy |
| Timeout | Forced sell after 2h if pump doesn't materialize |
| Sell at loss | Yes — accepted by design |
On CEX: limited to new listings (2-3/week). On Solana DEX: more opportunities but added complexity, to be implemented in phase 2.
§ 4 · Profit & loss management
4.1 Tiered take profit
| Level | Action | Remaining position |
|---|---|---|
| +20% | Sell 25% | 75% |
| +40% | Sell 25% | 50% |
| +60% | Sell 25% | 25% |
| Beyond +60% | Trailing stop -15% from max | Until sold |
4.2 Weekly rebalancing
- Every Monday: if a token > 30% of capital, trim the excess
- If a token < 5% and still valid, may reallocate
4.3 Cash management
- Crystallized profits: 50% reinvested in operational pool, 50% to stablecoin reserve
- Reserve only grows — never reinvested automatically
- Withdrawals only on explicit user request
4.4 Net P&L
No fee cap. The agent monitors net P&L (gains - fees). If daily P&L < -€10 on Strategy A, it stops. If the fee/profit ratio is too thin, it widens grid intervals.
§ 5 · Hardcoded rules
Implemented in code, not modifiable by the AI.
| Rule | Value | Reason |
|---|---|---|
| Max per token (A) | 30% of capital | Avoid concentration |
| Max per shitcoin (B) | €30 | Limit losses |
| Max operations/day | 50 | Prevent loops |
| Min daily P&L (A) | -€10 | Stop on bad day |
| Stablecoin reserve | 10% of total | Untouchable cushion |
| Sell at loss (A) | NEVER | Fundamental rule |
| Sell at loss (B) | Yes after 2h timeout | Accepted by design |
| Max operational capital | 90% of total | 10% always in reserve |
§ 6 · Public dashboard
The dashboard is the real product. It must be published from day one of paper trading to build an audience.
6.1 Structure
Homepage: Live portfolio (percentages, total P&L, chart from start). Status of three brains: Grid, Trend, Sentinel with risk score. Last trade with natural language explanation.
Operations page: Full history filterable by token, type, date. Each operation shows the decision reason.
Diary page: Daily agent commentary with defined personality and tone. Weekly analysis, posts on memory resets or strategy changes.
Info page: Project history, architecture, who's behind it.
Monetization: Banner ads (crypto sector: CPM €10-20/1000 views). Donations (Buy Me a Coffee, Ko-fi, crypto).
6.2 Tech stack
| Component | Technology | Cost |
|---|---|---|
| Frontend | React + Tailwind | €0 |
| Hosting | Vercel (free tier) | €0 |
| Database/Realtime | Supabase (websocket live) | €0 |
| Initial design | v0 by Vercel | €0 |
| Evolved design | Fiverr designer | €50-100 one-time |
| Domain | .com or .it | €10-15/year |
§ 7 · Learning system
The LLM doesn't learn in the classical sense. Intelligence grows through increasingly rich context fed to the model.
7.1 Structured memory
Database with complete history. Before each decision, the prompt includes: last N trades, latest Sentinel analyses, recent P&L, user feedback.
7.2 Auto-generated rules
A weekly job analyzes history and generates new rules. E.g.: "In the last 4 weeks, when RSI < 25 on TOKEN X, bounce within 6h." Saved in DB, loaded into prompt.
7.3 Daily diary
1 API call/day at end of day. The LLM writes a commentary with the agent's personality. Published on the dashboard. Cost: pennies.
7.4 Weekly report
1 API call/week. Analyzes trades, identifies patterns, generates rules. Can be done semi-manually (data via Telegram, rules generated in Claude Pro/Max chat). Cost: negligible.
7.5 Feedback loop
Telegram alerts with user response ("good decision" / "should have waited"). Feedback saved and used as future context.
§ 8 · Agent memory management
All memory lives in the database. Full control: reset, restore, compare versions.
| Reset type | Deletes | Keeps | When |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total | Everything | Nothing | Radical tests |
| Selective | Auto-generated rules | History and feedback | Market regime change |
| Snapshot + rollback | Nothing (saves copy) | Everything | Before major changes |
| Versioning | Deactivates versions | Everything | A/B testing rules |
Reset = clear rules table in DB. Click on admin dashboard (not public). Agent restarts with only hardcoded base rules.
§ 9 · Notifications (Telegram bot)
| Type | Frequency | Content |
|---|---|---|
| Daily report | 1x/day (evening) | P&L, trades, portfolio, risk score |
| Critical alert | When needed | Loss > threshold, critical news, opportunity |
| Weekly report | 1x/week (Mon) | Summary, new rules, rebalancing |
| Decision request | Rare | Sell at loss on Str. A? Needs human decision |
§ 10 · Cost analysis
10.1 Infrastructure
| Item | Paper trading | Live |
|---|---|---|
| Domain | €10-15/year | €10-15/year |
| Bot hosting (Mac Mini) | €0 | €0 or VPS €5-8/month |
| Dashboard (Vercel) | €0 | €0 |
| Database (Supabase) | €0 | €0 |
| LLM API (Sentinel) | €5-10/month | €10-20/month |
| News API | €0 | €0 |
| Telegram bot | €0 | €0 |
| Monthly total | ~€5-10/month | ~€15-45/month |
10.2 API optimization
The Sentinel accounts for 99% of API cost. Strategies:
- Use Haiku (or equivalent cheap model) instead of Sonnet/Opus
- Reduce frequency: 30-60 min normally, accelerate only in high volatility
- Prompt caching for the Sentinel system prompt
- Pre-filter news in Python before sending to LLM
- Evaluate local open-source models (Llama, Mistral) on Mac Mini for pre-filtering
§ 11 · 12-month simulation (conservative)
Assumptions: Str. A +2%/month net, Str. B volatile, profits 50/50 reinvest/reserve.
| Month | Pool A | Pool B | Reserve | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Start | €350 | €100 | €50 | €500 |
| Month 3 | €360 | €67 | €70 | €497 |
| Month 6 | €369 | €64 | €93 | €526 |
| Month 9 | €383 | €79 | €133 | €594 |
| Month 12 | €395 | €80 | €167 | €643 |
| Scenario | 12-month result | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Conservative | ~€643 (+28.6%) | €117 in crystallized reserve |
| Pessimistic (bear) | ~€480-510 | Capital protected by "never sell at loss" rule |
| Optimistic (bull) | ~€800-1000 | Str. A +4-6%/month, frequent pumps |
§ 12 · Development plan
Phase 0 — Setup (Week 1): Choose exchange (Binance/Bybit) and create KYC account. Configure API key (read + trade only, NO withdraw). Setup Python: ccxt, FastAPI, SQLite/Supabase. Create Telegram bot. Choose agent name and identity + register domain.
Phase 1 — Grid Bot + paper trading (Weeks 2-3): Implement Grid Bot in paper trading. Trade logging to database. Basic admin dashboard + Telegram notifications. Publish public dashboard (even basic).
Phase 2 — Trend Follower (Weeks 3-4): Calculate indicators (EMA, RSI, Volume). Trend Follower logic + Grid interaction. Parameter calibration on paper trading data.
Phase 3 — AI Sentinel (Weeks 4-5): Integrate news feeds (CryptoPanic, RSS). Sentinel prompt with LLM. Automatic daily diary. Sentinel override on other brains.
Phase 4 — Full dashboard (Weeks 5-6): Design with v0, React implementation, Vercel deploy, Supabase realtime.
Phase 5 — Extended paper trading (Weeks 6-10): Minimum 4 weeks. Optimization, fixes, first rule generation. Dashboard already live.
Phase 6 — Go live (After week 10): Only if paper trading is satisfactory. Start with €100-200, not €500. Scale gradually. Possible VPS migration.
§ 13 · References & resources
13.1 Open source projects
Freqtrade (main architectural reference) — Open source Python crypto bot. Backtesting, paper trading, WebUI, Telegram. Very similar stack to ours.
AI-Trader (dashboard + AI reference) — Live public dashboard with AI agents trading in real time. Copy trading, OpenClaw integration.
13.2 Market data & warnings
Failure statistics:
- 73% of automated trading accounts fail within 6 months
- 53.2% of all crypto projects failed (13.4M) — CoinGecko Jan 2026
- 11.6M tokens ceased in 2025 alone
- October 2025: crash — $19B liquidated in 24h
AI incidents:
- Lobstar Wild: decimal error, $441,000 lost in a single transaction
- GPT-5 test NOV1.ai: -62% capital in a few weeks
- May 2025: AI bots sell $2B in 3 minutes, amplifying a flash crash
Regulatory warnings:
- CFTC (USA): warning against AI bots with guaranteed returns
- MiFID II (EU): paid copy trading may require authorization
13.3 Tech stack
| Component | Technology | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Exchange API | ccxt (Python) | 100+ exchanges supported |
| Bot framework | FastAPI | Async, perfect for 24/7 |
| Frontend | React + Tailwind | Known stack |
| Realtime | Supabase Realtime | WebSocket for live dashboard |
| Web hosting | Vercel | Free tier, auto-deploy |
| Notifications | python-telegram-bot | Telegram Bot API |
| News feed | CryptoPanic API | Aggregator, free tier |
| LLM Sentinel | Haiku / Groq / Mistral / DeepSeek | Evaluate costs |
| Indicators | pandas-ta or ta-lib | RSI, EMA, MACD |
13.4 Conceptual inspiration
- Felix Craft AI (Nat Eliason) — AI agent "CEO" with public dashboard. Reference for storytelling and transparency.
- OpenClaw (Peter Steinberger) — autonomous open source AI agent. Reference for external tool integration.
§ 14 · Open decisions
| Decision | Options | Status |
|---|---|---|
| Agent name | TBD | open |
| Main exchange | Binance vs Bybit | open |
| LLM for Sentinel | Haiku vs Groq vs Mistral vs DeepSeek | open |
| Strategy B active at launch? | Depends on paper trading | open |
| Solana DEX for Str. B | Phase 2 after CEX validation | deferred |
| Future copy trading | MiFID II to verify | deferred |
| Local model (Llama) | Pre-filtering on Mac Mini | deferred |
| Live hosting | Mac Mini (paper) / VPS (live) | open |
| Absolute values or % | Privacy vs transparency | open |